Amid all of the doubters, there was a subset of people who realized Texas A&M was going to part ways with Jimbo Fisher this year. That group of people is known, within the industry, as those who can do math.
Is $77 million a lot of money? Why yes, it’s a lot of money. But what about $68 million? Why yes, it’s also a lot of money. What about $58 million? Why yes …
And on down the line. Texas A&M, if it wanted to avoid the most expensive buyout in college football history, would have had to wait until after the 2029 season for Fisher’s buyout to dip below the $20 million that Auburn doled out to Gus Malzahn after the 2019 season so it could get someone better, like Bryan Harsin. (Well done there, by the way.)
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Fisher’s contract was a mistake, as many knew when he got it after the 2020 season. But it was a sunk cost for Texas A&M, which wasn’t going to gain anything by waiting if it was convinced Fisher wasn’t the man to lead it into the bigger and even better SEC. And between the oil money among Texas A&M boosters and the possibility that Fisher’s buyout could be paid out on at least some gradual basis, it made financial sense.
This isn’t to say it’s absolutely the right move. As always, it depends on who you’re going to get. The timing of this decision is weird, with two games left and after a 41-point conference win.
Booster 1: “I’m tired of losing. We need to see something big this week. What’s the score?”
Booster 2: “We won. 51-10.”
Booster 1: “Well that’s just unacceptable. Time to make the move.”
It’s almost as though something was already in the works. We’ll see. There was a case to be made for waiting another year, with a recruiting class currently ranked seventh nationally, and that top-ranked class from 2022 (what’s left of it) headed into its third year on campus. Plus, the bad look of eating all that money — exhibit No. 3,567 that revenue sharing with the players isn’t going to kill college football.
But the Aggie power-brokers decided they’d seen enough, and that being the case, money wasn’t going to be an issue. So here we are, the SEC coaching carousel is off to a rousing start — and the vibes ranking gets a shakeup.
A reminder that, as always, this is not a pure ranking of how good teams are, but the feelings emanating from each program, taking into account team records, preseason expectations and the direction of the program. And when it comes to coaching uncertainty, hot seats are bad, but newly vacant seats are perversely exciting.
But don’t worry, the best feelings are still reserved for the teams actually in the best shape.
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Beat Ole Miss, 52-17
Hopefully, people have caught on by now that Georgia’s reputation as a defensive powerhouse has flipped this year. The top five offenses in the country, as measured by yards per play: LSU, Oregon, Washington, USC … and Georgia, which also ranks fifth in total yards, sixth in scoring, sixth in passing yards per game and is tied for the second-fewest punts in the country. All this and Kirby Smart still has at least a good defense — sixth in points allowed — serving as another reminder that defense doesn’t win championships, and offense doesn’t win championships, balance wins championships. And Georgia has it.
Which brings us to …
Won at Kentucky, 49-21
The question is do you believe what the stat sheet tells you — Alabama is a pedestrian 41st in offense and 21st in defense — or your eyes, at least the last few weeks, which say this is a dangerous team easily capable of beating Georgia? Jalen Milroe is now the most intriguing player in the SEC, and it’s not even close. The way he’s looked the last few weeks, if he keeps it up, translates to Alabama winning the SEC championship and rolling through the postseason. But keeping it up is the key.
Jalen Milroe is the first player with 3 Pass TD and 3 Rush TD in a game in Alabama history. pic.twitter.com/bMX2Sob7dy
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 11, 2023
3. Missouri (8-2)
Beat Tennessee, 36-7
It’s not custom around here to doubt the guys in Las Vegas, who can afford those big buildings for a reason. But when they set Missouri as a slight underdog — at home — to Tennessee, it felt off. Well, it was, and Missouri again showed that it is a very good team this year. The shame of it is the Tigers may have done this a year early because, in a 12-team CFP, they’d probably be the SEC’s third team this year. Of course with the momentum created, and the solid recruiting happening, this may not be a one-off. The vibes in Columbia are really good right now.
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4. LSU (7-3)
Beat Florida, 52-35
What more can you say about Jayden Daniels — he of the 606 yards and five touchdowns on Saturday, he of the nation-leading 30 passing touchdowns? You can say that the Heisman Trophy should be for the nation’s best player, and right now that’s either Daniels or Marvin Harrison Jr.
5. Auburn (6-4)
Won at Arkansas, 48-10
A road rout, and a high-profile recruiting flip. Not a shabby Saturday. Hugh Freeze will extend the honeymoon into Year 2. A bowl trip is assured, and a win next week against New Mexico State would give the program its most since 2019. The Iron Bowl will be a heavier lift, clearly. Even without that, Freeze and the Tigers look like they’ll have something to take into the offseason, even if the gap between them and their arch-rival across the state is rather steep. This year was about getting back to a competitive level, and they’ve done that.
6. Texas A&M (6-4)
Beat Mississippi State, 51-10
No more uncertainty, no more buyout breakdowns, the Aggies can just go hire a new coach. That’s worth a few notches in these rankings. But who they hire obviously matters much more, and this is a program that hasn’t gotten it right for a while. Fisher with a national championship ring looked like the right hire, just like Kevin Sumlin seemed to be a good hire after winning nearby at Houston. Money won’t be an issue. Finding the right fit will be. This is a program whose expectations and finances have outstripped its on-field product.
Lost at Georgia, 52-17
This will be harsh, but the Ole Miss team on display Saturday just looked like a paper tiger. The offense was explosive at first but couldn’t keep it going. The defense was a sieve. And at the end of the night, Lane Kiffin’s team has an impressive record but with only one good win (the shootout over LSU.) Then again — and this will also sound harsh — it’s Ole Miss, not Texas A&M or LSU, so if the Rebels can close with two more wins, which they should, 10-2 is still pretty good, paper tiger or not.
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8. Tennessee (7-3)
Lost at Missouri, 36-7
Oof. Just … oof. There’s still a chance to finish this season strong, and ending Georgia’s 27-game win streak would qualify. But between what we saw from Tennessee on Saturday and what we saw from Georgia, that’s harder to see. Before the season, many — including me — had this game as the one Georgia was likeliest to lose. It’ll be interesting to see whether enthusiasm in the stands and on the sidelines is dampened, or if Rocky Top can muster the atmosphere and excitement to give Georgia a real scare.
Beat Vanderbilt, 47-6
Anyone ready to bury the Shane Beamer era a few weeks ago wasn’t looking at the last four games of South Carolina’s schedule. Now infused with some confidence, this team gets Kentucky and Clemson at home, so a winning season (counting the bowl bid it would get) and offseason momentum are very much on the table. Of course, so is losing one or both games. A lot’s on the line the next few weeks for the next nine months of vibes around Columbia.
10. Kentucky (6-4)
Lost to Alabama, 49-21
Mark Stoops has done a very solid job with this program, but it’s fair to ask if he’s hit his ceiling in Lexington. In the offseason, he landed a good transfer quarterback and rehired an offensive coordinator who had been successful for him, and things didn’t improve. The question is: What are the ambitions of Kentucky’s program and fan base? If it’s to be merely solid, it can keep doing that for a while. If it’s to break through, then a season in which it got obliterated by Alabama and Georgia, and also lost convincingly to Missouri and Tennessee, is a blaring red sign that it won’t happen.
11. Florida (5-5)
Lost at LSU, 52-35
Gator fans take in another maddening day, see the final two games are at Missouri and against Florida State, then click on the recruiting rankings to see they’re still in the top five and take a deep breath and say: “Well, no one said this would happen overnight. (But we kinda hoped it would be quicker than it looks like it’ll be).”
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12. Mississippi State (4-6)
Lost at Texas A&M, 51-10
This is going to be an interesting one to watch. Zach Arnett was regarded as a rising star defensive coordinator, but was it too early for him to be an SEC head coach? Could the solution be to move on and give Arnett the opportunity to be the defensive coordinator at a place that could really use the lift? (Ahem, USC, cough cough, LSU.) Or was Arnett just put in an unimaginably tough situation, and with another year can get things going in a good direction? There’s a good argument for both sides.
Lost to Auburn, 48-10
Well, it was a nice week of good vibes, at least. Then … yikes. This was one of the more eye-popping scores in the SEC this season, and that’s not good at all for the Razorbacks. Suddenly, Sam Pittman is back to needing a good finish. Florida International next week should be a reprieve, but Missouri in the season finale? It’s hard to be optimistic.
14. Vanderbilt (2-9)
Lost at South Carolina, 47-6
Yuck. The Commodores had at least been somewhat competitive most of this season, but the last few weeks have been ugly. Especially this one. It’s just been a miserable third year for Clark Lea, who probably wouldn’t mind moving the finale at Tennessee up to this week so he can just get started on Year 4. At least there doesn’t appear to be any huge pressure on Lea. Then again, apathy and no vibes are worse than bad vibes. Hence, the Commodores again occupy the final slot.
(Photo of Jimbo Fisher: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)
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